tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7078098393081774013.comments2012-10-23T14:36:02.084-05:00minn-DonkeyTonyAngelohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15959746372997929427noreply@blogger.comBlogger55125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7078098393081774013.post-83987879061957027762012-10-23T14:36:02.084-05:002012-10-23T14:36:02.084-05:00Hi Tony, I've spoken briefly with you a few ti...Hi Tony, I've spoken briefly with you a few times. Impressive left.mn site you have. I wonder if you can help me understand the differences in the what you call hpvi and what MinnPost published (same type of stats). Holly Cairnshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13843886442057669495noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7078098393081774013.post-62126210005187934542012-01-26T17:30:49.505-06:002012-01-26T17:30:49.505-06:00I don't know what happened, but it's fixed...I don't know what happened, but it's fixed now.TonyAngelohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15959746372997929427noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7078098393081774013.post-54303849593164971602012-01-26T14:35:39.095-06:002012-01-26T14:35:39.095-06:00The CD4 Martin map is not loading. Can you reuplo...The CD4 Martin map is not loading. Can you reupload it. It'd be nice to see esp. if pits Bachmann against McCollumAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18251049554704968322noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7078098393081774013.post-70746968711676954972012-01-17T09:02:11.603-06:002012-01-17T09:02:11.603-06:00Well, the brand new independent commission in Cali...Well, the brand new independent commission in California completely blew up the map. But Dean's absolutely right about the old map being a finely crafted bipartisan gerrymander. In the last decade, one congressional district, out of 53, has changed parties.TonyAngelohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15959746372997929427noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7078098393081774013.post-72333724925499541742012-01-16T09:41:15.537-06:002012-01-16T09:41:15.537-06:00Dean's comment about "least change" ...Dean's comment about "least change" in the California context is very interesting.Stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07969988452643430382noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7078098393081774013.post-38611838472262127982012-01-16T09:38:26.125-06:002012-01-16T09:38:26.125-06:00Perhaps some readers would like to watch Mike Dean...Perhaps some readers would like to watch Mike Dean's (Common Cause exec. dir.) interview on redistricting from last Friday the 13th:<br /><br />http://vimeo.com/35042356Stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07969988452643430382noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7078098393081774013.post-4556593871396024712011-11-09T09:03:32.537-06:002011-11-09T09:03:32.537-06:00Unfortunately you're absolutely right.Unfortunately you're absolutely right.TonyAngelohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15959746372997929427noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7078098393081774013.post-76245184932721138732011-11-09T08:58:36.581-06:002011-11-09T08:58:36.581-06:00If we learned anything about polling ballot questi...If we learned anything about polling ballot questions from the Legacy amendment, it's that you need to mirror the actual wording on the ballot to get the best results. This result is probably more accurate.aaronklemzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09544556129039817104noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7078098393081774013.post-72265227202196899002011-09-06T21:19:21.456-05:002011-09-06T21:19:21.456-05:00Well, and Big Eddie, too.Well, and Big Eddie, too.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04320639130804814361noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7078098393081774013.post-90861983558655765212011-07-18T13:00:32.102-05:002011-07-18T13:00:32.102-05:00Fair point, but Dayton gave up on his signature &q...Fair point, but Dayton gave up on his signature "tax the rich" promise, and the GOP did not give up on their signature "no more taxes" promise. I fear that history will only remember who broke their biggest promise, and the rest will just be forgotten subtext. For the record, I hope I'm wrong.Luke Fergusonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03164895796313902592noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7078098393081774013.post-60465074635688030252011-07-11T15:27:33.102-05:002011-07-11T15:27:33.102-05:00The Social Security "lock box" (yeah, ri...The Social Security "lock box" (yeah, right) has loaned the federal government money for years, decades, even. That's where all the surpluses over the years that some people (cough, cough) have been contributing to have gone. I've paid quite a lot into SS, including employer's portions for employees, over the years, and if Congress and the Prez wreck it now, I'll be pissed.Stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07969988452643430382noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7078098393081774013.post-58211401287860064612011-07-11T15:18:17.769-05:002011-07-11T15:18:17.769-05:00I'm thinking about inviting Lynne to DL. Bet s...I'm thinking about inviting Lynne to DL. Bet she'd come.Stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07969988452643430382noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7078098393081774013.post-51565540114639029652011-03-15T10:30:26.945-05:002011-03-15T10:30:26.945-05:00You're absolutely right, which is why I said i...You're absolutely right, which is why I said in the first paragraph that the incumbents re-elect number is the important one to look at.<br /><br />It doesn't really matter what the Democratic Jesus is polling at, because an actual candidate will inevitably not poll as strongly.TonyAngelohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15959746372997929427noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7078098393081774013.post-10691317790354730662011-03-15T10:19:28.763-05:002011-03-15T10:19:28.763-05:00The problem is, generic dems are usually much more...The problem is, generic dems are usually much more appealing than the actual candidates. <br /><br />It's easy for people to be against the republican when you don't have to be for some other d-bag.DiscordianStoogehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03873734789014349292noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7078098393081774013.post-3320312825690821142011-01-15T07:11:43.336-06:002011-01-15T07:11:43.336-06:00A bit of clarification; Minnesota, like all states...A bit of clarification; Minnesota, like all states, is subject to the Voting Rights Act.<br /><br />However, Minnesota is not subject to section 5 of the VRA, the preclearance provision.<br /><br />Here is a map of jurisdictions covered by section 5: http://goo.gl/m3EqVTonyAngelohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15959746372997929427noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7078098393081774013.post-9008537363817827472011-01-14T11:34:26.902-06:002011-01-14T11:34:26.902-06:00Good discussion. While compactness is indeed a leg...Good discussion. While compactness is indeed a legitimate redistricting criteria, I believe assembling communities of interest should receive a higher order when drawing new lines. And while Minnesota is not a VRA state, efforts will be made to create majority-minority legislative districts.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04577679777965952791noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7078098393081774013.post-14201470675100500922010-12-09T10:38:08.149-06:002010-12-09T10:38:08.149-06:00Of course any poll done now will have little beari...Of course any poll done now will have little bearing on the dynamics of 2012, but the fact is Amy Klobuchar is starting from a very strong position. <br /><br />+30 job approval is about as good as it gets. It's certainly possible she slips some, but she has done a good job so far of insulating herself from the unpopularity of congress as a whole.<br /><br />Bachmann is not a threat to Amy. Yes she has almost universal name recognition, but the majority of those people who know who she is have a negative impression of her. <br /><br />Additionally her district is likely to get even more amenable to her after redistricting as the more liberal parts of it are the parts that make the most sense to break off into other districts.<br /><br />I think Laura Brod is a very good guess for who will eventually make a run.TonyAngelohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15959746372997929427noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7078098393081774013.post-79290852515933535082010-12-09T09:24:25.644-06:002010-12-09T09:24:25.644-06:00Polls two years out are suspect … what was Russ Fe...Polls two years out are suspect … what was Russ Feingold’s poll two years out and had anyone heard of Ron Johnson ? Heck, even a year out … think about the early PPP polling for MN-GOV that had Emmer having no name recognition – even amongst Republicans … but in the end, he came within 9000 votes of being the next Governor. <br /><br />Senator Klobuchar has enjoyed good support, but that may erode as the next Congress pushes President Obama … and based on Obama’s tax plan, he may be portrayed as a pushover. Senator Coleman lost his race when he voted for TARP … how Senator Klobuchar votes on the Obama tax concession will impact her re-election. The Obama tax concession has nothing good in it for working families and seniors … but it will drive up the debt (increasing the anger of the TaxEnoughAlready movement), continue ethanol subsidies (which Klobuchar supports), eliminates the Making Work Pay tax credit, and reduces contributions to the Social Security Trust Fund making it run out sooner. <br />The courts may rule the healthcare reform unconstitutional which re-ignites that issue.<br />The Afghanistan situation will linger on.<br /><br />All that said, Senator Klobuchar will have plenty of challenges … and the Republican (especially if they are not currently in the House) candidate will be free to make bombastic attacks without any consequences.<br /><br />Some comments on the challengers mentioned.<br />YES, Pawlenty will make more money by seeking the presidency … at this stage, my money is on him to get elected President (no, actually Bob Perry’s money is in the bag that Pawlenty carries for him … and the Koch brothers should find no problem switching from Romney to Pawlenty.)<br /><br />Coleman has learned that there is more money to be made outside of elected office … he doesn’t need to be RNC chairman .. he has more freedom as CEO of American Action Network to run negative ads and collect big bucks … his days of public service are long over.<br /><br />Bachmann … well, the appeal would be that the Senate has better rules than the House … she can put holds on judges that favor abortions or same-sex marriage … she can object to any legislation that would restrict business from doing anything it wants. Plus she will be faced with a redrawn district as the Second and Sixth have grown too big. She has the name recognition and fundraising ability to mount a serious challenge. Could she win ? That may be her downfall … but look at what she did this time … she got more votes than in 2006 while the DFL challenger lost votes from 2006. Bachmann is a threat.<br /><br />Paulsen … hmm … yes, he is unknown … heck, he underformed Ramstad’s 2006 number … and probably impacted Emmer’s contest by not getting enough likely Republican voters to the polls. He might look at the Mark Kennedy experience and realize that he would do better to stay on the sidelines until Franken is up in an off-year election.<br /><br />Emmer … let’s face it, HE LOST … if the MN-GOP had put up Norm Coleman they would have beaten Dayton. Tom Horner hurt, Emmer but look at a county like Olmstead (Rochester) and notice how well the SOS and Auditor did versus how well Emmer did …if those Republican voters had supported Emmer, he would have won. The other factor is that people just did not trust (or like) Emmer … if he had followed other Republicans candidates strategy and rejected debates, he may have done better … he would have focused on his base. Yet, he would be good as the bomb-thrower … sitting in Minnesota getting all the publicity while Klobuchar is tied down by a Republican-inspired Senate. I would never vote for him, but others could.<br /><br />The name that was not polled is John Kline. Yeah, Kline has his Committee Chairmanship but as a Senator he would join Jim DeMint and Tom Coburn in shaping policy. He would be a formidable challenger … and he would do it on his terms … NO DEBATES and faux issues … attacking “earmarks” that Klobuchar brought home.<br /><br />And what about a Laura Brod type ?<br /><br />But the real surprising aspect of the poll was that Al Franken has a positive view by Minnesotans.Minnesota Centralhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02462056292830437795noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7078098393081774013.post-83991420720405665262010-12-07T11:39:18.734-06:002010-12-07T11:39:18.734-06:00Excellent, thanks!Excellent, thanks!ldchttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04479030304565888360noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7078098393081774013.post-59659746023303172692010-12-07T06:44:26.470-06:002010-12-07T06:44:26.470-06:00Cause of the pretty colors?
Yes, maybe eye candy ...Cause of the pretty colors?<br /><br />Yes, maybe eye candy was the wrong phrase.<br /><br />That's a good suggestion, the short answer is that yes; turnout, lower or higher than expected, can lead to inaccuracies in polls.<br /><br />Perhaps I'll do a "Source of Error in Polls" post.TonyAngelohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15959746372997929427noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7078098393081774013.post-13439373471471197862010-12-06T22:26:25.905-06:002010-12-06T22:26:25.905-06:00How is it "eye candy" if the red is on t...How is it "eye candy" if the red is on the post-election side?<br />and since you asked for suggestions: I'm interested in how the accuracy of polls corresponds to voter turnout. I would expect polls to be less accurate with lower turnout- is that true? and how much of a difference is there?ldchttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04479030304565888360noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7078098393081774013.post-66756192683185007162010-11-17T17:33:17.879-06:002010-11-17T17:33:17.879-06:00If compactness is the goal, that seems like a good...If compactness is the goal, that seems like a good method, although the population disparity is probably too high for congressional seats.<br /><br />The question I would ask is, should compactness be the prime objective?TonyAngelohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15959746372997929427noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7078098393081774013.post-26873363971726611672010-11-17T17:19:16.487-06:002010-11-17T17:19:16.487-06:00I have another math-based approach, http://bdistri...I have another math-based approach, http://bdistricting.com/MN/<br />Compare to splitline and I think my results are favorable.<br />It also has the stated drawbacks of ignoring traditional boundaries, but I still think it makes an interesting ideal and we should be able to compare to such maps and figure out how much distortion is going towards political shenanigans.Brian Olsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06258128480111746553noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7078098393081774013.post-58735325156383456222010-11-17T15:33:16.541-06:002010-11-17T15:33:16.541-06:00Majority leader Pogemiller carried a redistricting...Majority leader Pogemiller carried a redistricting senate bill in 2009 which did pass in the senate. There was however no house author hence no house bill. The DFL assumed thet would have a clean sweep in the 2010 general election and could do whatever they wished with redistricting. Looking at how senators voted in 2009 and the new make up of the senate, the DFL will need to pick up at least 10 of the new 25 senators, only two of which are DFL. <br /><br />Tom MarverTom Marverhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08072963346591231421noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7078098393081774013.post-22398841188243520182010-11-10T10:58:21.459-06:002010-11-10T10:58:21.459-06:00I should have phrased that differently. Saying it&...I should have phrased that differently. Saying it's theory implies I have some evidence, which I don't. Speculation would have been the correct word to use.TonyAngelohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15959746372997929427noreply@blogger.com