MN-8: Clark leads DFLers in fundraising

The three DFL candidates (minus Daniel Fanning) running for Chip Cravaack's eighth district seat have released their fundraising numbers for the third quarter and more so than endorsements and straw polls, the money raised by these candidates will have a tangible effect on the race.

8th District fundraising; DFLers through 9/30/11

Name	Net raised	Net spent	Cash-on-hand
Tarryl Clark	$375,143	$166,702	$235,545
Rick Nolan	$65,649	$33,617	$32,032
Jeff Anderson	$51,020	$30,409	$20,611

Tarryl Clark is proving that her fundraising chops were not solely the product of being Michele Bachmann's opponent, she raised more than three times as much money as her two DFL rivals combined, Rick Nolan and Jeff Anderson, who need to do much better at bringing in the cash if they are going to seriously challenge Cravaack in November.

Based on the endorsement arms race that is currently unfolding between Nolan and Anderson the DFL party endorsement for the eighth district seems like it is out of Tarryl Clark's reach. And since Nolan and Anderson are in the process of seeking the endorsement, they might feel like they don't need to be fundraising in earnest quite yet.

This is the advantage that Tarryl Clark has over her opponents. Having just run for congress in 2010, she is well aware of the fundraising required to mount a congressional campaign and clearly has no qualms about asking for money.

Jeff Anderson has only run for the city council, and when Rick Nolan last ran for congress things were quite a bit different; a candidate didn't need to spend every waking hour on the phone asking people for money, these days they do.

So while it seems unlikely that Tarryl Clark is going to win the DFL endorsement in the eighth district, she is building a warchest for the inevitable primary fight that will ensue after the endorsement is handed out. And if she keeps fundraising at this rate, she will be a tough primary opponent.

New CD8 poll confirms tight race

SurveyUSA (10/28, likely voters, no trend lines):

Rep. Jim Oberstar (D): 47
Chip Cravaack (R): 46
George Burton (CP): 3
Undecided: 4
(MoE: ±3.9%)

We finally get a public poll of congressional district eight and it confirms the internal poll that the Chip Cravaack campaign released a few weeks ago. It's clear that this race is tight and the internals of this poll have to be troubling for Jim Oberstar.

The partisan composition of the poll is 41% Dem, 28% GOP and 28% Indy, Cravaack is keeping it close by winning independents 56-32, which doesn't bode well for Oberstar's chances of winning the remaining undecided vote.

One caveat, of course, is what I talked about earlier today in regards the the SUSA poll of the Governor's race, automated polls this year have skewed in the GOPs direction by an average of two points, according to Nate Silver. Survey USA in particular has skewed right by four points on average.

Regardless of that, Jim Oberstar is in a close race, something he's not used to and he will need to make sure that democratic voters in CD8 turnout for him on election day. And it appears that is exactly what he is doing.

A Tale of Two Internals

More than two weeks ago Chip Cravaack's campaign released an internal poll showing him 3 points behind Jim Oberstar, 45-42. This put not only the CD8 race on Republicans radar, but next door in CD7 they assumed Colin Peterson must be vulnerable too. In response to the increasing chatter about weather he was in a tight race or not Peterson's campaign released an internal poll of their own showing him wiping the floor with Lee Byberg 54-20.

Not only can we learn something from these two polls, but how the series of events unfolded is also of educational value.