Wisconsin Aftermath

Democrats managed to win just two state Senate seats in Wisconsin yesterday, falling short of the three they needed to take back control of the state Senate. It was a disappointing, but hardly surprising outcome, after all, these Republicans had survived the 2008 blue wave.

The thing that stood out to me as I'm looking over the results this morning is the incredible accuracy of Public Policy Polling in the races they polled, check it out (actual results in parenthesis):

SD-32
Jennifer Shilling (D): 54 (55)
Dan Kapanke (R-inc): 43 (45)
(MoE: ±3.4%)

SD-18
Jessica King (D): 48 (51)
Randy Hopper (R-inc): 49 (49)
(MoE: ±2.7%)

SD-10
Shelly Moore (D): 42 (42)
Sheila Harsdorf (R-inc): 54 (58)
(MoE: ±2.7%)

SD-14
Fred Clark (D): 47 (48)
Luther Olsen (R-inc): 50 (52)
(MoE: ±2.8%)

Everyone they had at 50% and over won their race and they weren't off by more then a couple of points on any of the races. For unprecedented state legislature recall elections happening in the summer they got about as close as could possibly be expected.

So kudos to PPP for doing excellent work and for anyone still skeptical of the automated polling concept, take note, some automated pollsters are not as sloppy and methodologically unsound as Rasmussen is.

WI-Recall: Two Dems leading, a third close

DailyKos sent PPP out to Wisconsin again to have a look at the upcoming state Senate recall elections, here's what they came back with:

PPP (6/28 likely voters, 3/14 in parenthesis*)

Senate district 32
Jennifer Shilling (D): 55 (55)
Dan Kapanke (R-Inc): 42 (41)

Senate district 18
Jessica King (D): 50 (49)
Randy Hopper (R-Inc): 47 (44)

Senate district 10
Sheila Harsdorf (R-Inc): 50 (48)
Shelly Moore (D): 45 (44)

* the 3/14 poll pitted the GOP incumbents against generic democrats

There has been remarkably little movement in these races since the first poll that PPP did on them back in mid-march. I say remarkably because in the earlier poll PPP didn't even know who the Republicans were going to be facing and so polled them against a generic democratic opponent.

There is good news in this poll and there is bad news; the good news, Dan Kapanke is toast and Jessica King is up by a small amount on Randy Hopper. The bad news, Sheila Harsdorf continues to have a small but significant lead.

WI-Recall: Two Dems leading, a third close

DailyKos sent PPP out to Wisconsin again to have a look at the upcoming state Senate recall elections, here's what they came back with:

PPP (6/28 likely voters, 3/14 in parenthesis*)

Senate district 32
Jennifer Shilling (D): 55 (55)
Dan Kapanke (R-Inc): 42 (41)

Senate district 18
Jessica King (D): 50 (49)
Randy Hopper (R-Inc): 47 (44)

Senate district 10
Sheila Harsdorf (R-Inc): 50 (48)
Shelly Moore (D): 45 (44)

* the 3/14 poll pitted the GOP incumbents against generic democrats

There has been remarkably little movement in these races since the first poll that PPP did on them back in mid-march. I say remarkably because in the earlier poll PPP didn't even know who the Republicans were going to be facing and so polled them against a generic democratic opponent.

There is good news in this poll and there is bad news; the good news, Dan Kapanke is toast and Jessica King is up by a small amount on Randy Hopper. The bad news, Sheila Harsdorf continues to have a small but significant lead.

Wisconsin Senate Recall Polls

DailyKos commissioned their polling partner, PPP, to poll the eight potential recall elections in Wisconsin. In all eight of the polls they matched the incumbant Republican with a "generic Democrat," so the number to pay attention to is the incumbents re-elect number.

PPP (3/14, no trend lines):

Dan Kapanke (R): 41
Generic Dem: 55

Randy Hopper (R): 44
Generic Dem: 49

Luther Olsen (R): 47
Generic Dem: 49

Rob Cowles (R): 45
Generic Dem: 43

Sheila Harsdorf (R): 48
Generic Dem: 44

Alberta Darling (R): 52
Generic Dem: 44

Mary Lazich (R): 56
Generic Dem: 34

Glenn Grothman (R): 60
Generic Dem: 32

No information yet on sample size and margin of error which will be posted tomorrow morning at DailyKos

Wisconsin Democrats need to win three of these seats to take back control of the Senate and what do you know, there are three incumbents trailing against a generic Democrat. Additionally two more incumbents are below 50% against a generic Democrat.

Before a recall election can happen though, Wisconsin Democrats have to collect the requisite number of signatures. In that regard things are looking good, as Chris Bowers at DailyKos posted about earlier today, with over three quarters of the time remaining Democrats claim to have almost 50% of the required signatures.

Of course the first 50% is easier than the second 50% and what's more Wisconsin Democrats will surely want to collect more than the bare minimum of signatures to guard against the inevitable legal challenges.

All of which means if you can donate any money or time to help your cheese-head neighbors next door, now's the time.