Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Redistricting Maps! Round Five - The Parties' Proposals, Metro edition

Redistricting MinnesotaYesterday I posted the partisan numbers of the proposed districts, today I'm going to look at the districts themselves, starting today in the metro and going outstate tomorrow.

Before I get into that I just wanted to recap the numbers from yesterday in the form of a color coded excel table!

ave Dem% diff

This is a table of the differences in the average Democratic vote %, color coded so that the districts that get the most Republican are redder and the ones that get the most Democratic are bluer.

With that, on to the maps!

Just for reference, this is what the metro area looks like right now:

Metro area

Twin Cities

Now let's take a look at the proposed districts, starting in Minneapolis:


CD5 - Britton
Britton proposal

CD5 - Hippert
Hippert proposal

CD5 - Martin
Martin proposal

For CD5 we see five different takes; the Britton map loses the southern Anoka burbs and Hopkins while adding Bloomington and most of Edina. The Hippert map changes things the least and simply adds Brooklyn Center and parts of Brooklyn Park, while the Martin map expands on this idea, losing Richfield and the airport in the south and adding Osseo, Brooklyn Center, and additional parts of Brooklyn Park.

The only things constant among all of these maps are Minneapolis and the suburbs immediately west of it, which we can safely assume will be part of CD5 in any new map. But the question of exactly were the additional voters are added to CD5 from will effect how the suburban districts get drawn.

I don't think the courts will draw Bloomington into the Minneapolis district, it's a large enough city in it's own right to have a separate congressional district from the states largest city. Which means it's highly likely that all of Brooklyn Center and parts of either Brooklyn Park or Edina will get added to CD5 to achieve population equality.

I think the biggest question about CD5 is weather it will keep it's Anoka county tentacle or the court will opt to keep Anoka county whole.


CD4 - Britton
Britton proposal

CD4 - Hippert
Hippert proposal

CD4 - Martin
Martin proposal

We see a similar pattern play out with CD4 as with CD5; the Britton plan expands one way, adding Inver Grove Heights and Eagan to it's existing collection of south suburban territory. The Martin map goes the the other way, losing all of Dakota county and adding almost all of Washington county. The Hippert map, as was the case with CD5, is the least change version, expanding by little bits in a few different directions.

The only thing constant among these maps is that they contain the entirety of Ramsey county which seems very unlikely to change with a new map. Like with CD5 and Anoka county, a big question for CD4 is weather the court decides to reunite Dakota county or keep some of it's northern cities in CD4.

This decision will drive where CD can pick up new voters from and a decision by the court to keep Dakota county whole will likely result in a version that looks very much like the Martin map. If the court decides to keep some of Dakota in CD4 though, then I would suspect that the final version would more resemble the Hippert version.


CD3 - Britton
Britton proposal

CD3 - Hippert
Hippert proposal

CD3 - Martin
Martin proposal

Now we get into the fun stuff. As you can see, there is a lot of disagreement about how to draw CD3 among the intervenors. The Britton and Hippert proposal's keep the "whatever's leftover of Hennepin county from CD5" format and go west to fill out the district. The Britton proposal going north-west, bringing in the northern edge of Wright county and the cities of Anoka and part of Ramsey from Anoka county. The Hippert map pushes CD3 south-west, grabbing all of Carver and McLeod counties and losing Coon Rapids.

Both of these versions might have issues though because they incorporate a lot of new rural territory into what is right now a primarily suburban district. But if you're going to try and stick to the current version of CD3, you don't have much of an option but to go West.

The Martin version solves this issue by envisioning an entirely new CD3. It loses the western and northern parts of Hennepin county and incorporates central and southern Hennepin county with northern parts of Dakota county and the part of Washington county that didn't get drawn into CD4.

This makes CD3 an entirely suburban district and for that reason I think is a viable alternative to the CD3 status quo. Weather the court sees it that way is anyone's guess.


CD6 - Britton
Britton proposal

CD6 - Hippert
Hippert proposal

CD6 - Martin
Martin proposal

This assortment of CD6 versions are mostly driven by how the inner districts were drawn. The Britton map loses all of Wright and Sterns county (except St. Cloud) and adds the rest of Washington county, to create a meandering district exurban district.

The Hippert map once again seeks to make as few changes as possible, shedding Benton county and part of Sterns from the northern part of the district. The Martin map seems to keep the "spirit" of CD6 while still making some changes. Because of how CD4 got drawn CD6 loses Washington county and it also loses Benton county. It picks up Chisago and Isanti counties, arguably a better fit here than in CD8 and all of Sterns county.

What the court will do with CDs 6 and 2 will largely depend on the decisions they make regarding the inner three districts. All of the maps have the majority if not all of Sherburne and Anoka counties in them, so that much it seems is certain. How the rest of the district gets put together though will largely depend on what's left over from CD's 3, 4 and 5.


CD2 - Britton
Britton proposal

CD2 - Hippert
Hippert proposal

CD2 - Martin
Martin proposal

CD2's differing versions, like for CD6, are largely driven by the districts they are being drawn around. In the Britton map CD2 is reconfigured quite a bit from the current version, losing Goodhue, Rice and Le Sueur counties and picking up a bunch of counties to the West; Kandiyohi, Meeker, McLeod, Renville, Sibley and part of Wright.

The Hippert version loses Carver to CD3 and picks up Wabash, Sibley and Nicollet save for a small portion of Mankato. For all the attention being paid to the DFL map and it's pairing of Michele and Betty and drawing Chip into CD6, little has been said of the GOP maps splitting of Tim Walz's home city.

The Martin version loses LeSueur and Rice counties and the western and northern portions of Hennepin county that got drawn out of CD3 and resembles the meandering CD6 in the Britton map. Again, this is a product of how CD3 got drawn more than anything else.

Here than is how the metro area of the three maps look:

Metro area - Britton map
Britton proposal

Metro area - Hippert map
Hippert proposal

Metro area - Martin map
Martin proposal


  1. The CD4 Martin map is not loading. Can you reupload it. It'd be nice to see esp. if pits Bachmann against McCollum

  2. I don't know what happened, but it's fixed now.