Yet another poll on the anti-family amendment

Around this time each year St. Cloud State University does a statewide poll and this years version featured a question about the anti-family amendment.

SCSU (11/12, no trend lines):

"Should the Minnesota Constitution be amended to provide that only a union of one man and one
woman shall be valid or recognized as a marriage in Minnesota?"

Yes 44
No 47
Don't know/refused 9
(MoE: ±5%)

This result runs contrary to the two polls from last week, by the Star Tribune (PSRA) and KSTP (SurveyUSA), who both found outside the margin of error leads for the amendment. And other than a PPP poll at the end of May that showed the amendment losing by a single point this is the only poll with the "one man, one woman" language to show the amendment losing outright.

If we simply average the three latest polls we get this; 43% do not support the amendment and 46% do. This leaves 10-11% in the undecided/don't know category. It's that 10% who will decide the fate of the amendment.

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Here's an updated table of all the polls conducted on the amendment using the "one man, one woman" language that will appear on the ballot:

MN Anti-Family Amendment Polling

Pollster	median date	"No"	"Yes"	Un	margin
SurveyUSA	5/24/2011	40	51	10	-11
PPP	5/29/2011	47	46	7	1
PSRA	11/3/2011	43	48	8	-5
SurveyUSA	11/5/2011	40	46	4	-6
SCSU	10/22/2011	47	44	9	3
Ave		43	47	8	-3