Random Story Roundup

It's Friday, you know what that means don't you? Partying, partying and fun, fun, fun.

I couldn't resist that one on April fools day.

Now that you're in the proper frame of mind, on to the random goodness!

• Politico reported earlier in the week that former Senator Norm Coleman wasn't too bullish on the GOPs chances of taking Amy Klobuchar's Senate seat.
  
  

  I think it could be a tough year. She’s certainly strong. She’s got good numbers and good support. She hasn’t been a very polarizing force. Clearly, that's going to be a challenge.

  
  Did I say "wasn't too bullish?" From an insider like Coleman the above quote is about as close as you're likely to get to "we don't have a snowballs chance in hell."
  
  
• In November Nancy Reagan announced that the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation, along with NBC and Politico, would host the first of the Republican Presidential nomination debates.
  
  Since than no one has actually announced they are running, at least no one anyone is taking seriously, leaving debate organizers in a dilemma, either they let the Bachmann's and Cain's of the GOP have the stage to themselves or they postpone the event until some actual candidates emerge.
  
  Not surprisingly they decided to postpone.
  
  

Updated hPVI by County

Over the next few weeks I'm going to be rolling out the new hPVIs, starting today with the counties and then moving on to the Senate and House districts. Because of redistricting the Senate and House hPVIs will be mostly irrelevant as soon as a new map is approved, but they will nonetheless provide some interesting information on partisan trends within the state.

For those of you who don't know what I'm talking about; hPVI is a bastardization of The Cook Political Reports PVI metric. PVI (which stands for partisan voting index) is simply the average margin of victory of a parties presidential candidate in a congressional district.

Here is the explanation from Cook's website:

A Partisan Voting Index score of D+2, for example, means that in the 2004 and 2008 presidential elections, that district performed an average of two points more Democratic than the nation did as a whole, while an R+4 means the district performed four points more Republican than the national average. If a district performed within half a point of the national average in either direction, we assign it a score of EVEN.

County hPVI Map

After making the map of the counties Mark Dayton won in the DFL primary I got a little map making crazy and made a bunch of maps. One of them is a map of the County hPVI list I posted awhile ago.



The way the color coding works is any county with an hPVI of D+5 to R+5 is white, any county with an hPVI of D+6 to D+20 is light blue and any county with an hPVI greater than D+20 is dark blue. The GOP counties followed the same parameters, so light red is R+6 to R+20 and dark red is R+21 and greater.

The Chairmen

Among Minnesota's Democratic congressional delegation there are two in top leadership positions; Jim Oberstar is Chairman of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee and Colin Peterson is Chairman of the House Agriculture Committee. Both have represented the state for a long time; Oberstar for over 25 years, Peterson for close to 20, and both represent large, mostly rural districts. But as we saw with their respective SILVER scores, they are quite different in how they vote, at least in the 111^th congress. While Colin Peterson had a slightly liberal for his district score of -.06, Jim Oberstar had a superstar level -.55. Let's take a look at their DW-Nominate scores over the entire course of their time in office to see if that changes our perception any.

What you see is that over the years Oberstar has become marginally more conservative while Peterson has made moves in the liberal direction. This becomes even more evident when you look at their current scores for the 111^th congress versus their mean and first year scores.

	111	mean	1st	+/- mean	+/- 1st	stddv
PETERSON	-0.175	-0.139	-0.103	-0.036	-0.072	0.0242
OBERSTAR	-0.539	-0.544	-0.550	0.005	0.011	0.0033

As we saw earlier, in the 111^th congress Peterson is voting more liberally then he has in the past and Oberstar is voting slightly more conservatively. What you can also see by looking at the standard deviation of their scores, as well as the +/- versus the mean and first year, is that Peterson's voting patterns have shifted more substantially over the years then Oberstar's, who has essentially the same score now as when he started.

What does this mean? Well, Jim Oberstar has been voting the same way for 25 years and Colin Peterson has ever so slightly become more liberal than when he first joined the congress. If we assume the PVI of the 7^th CD is the same now as it was in 1991 (a dubious assumption) then Peterson would've had a SILVER score of .08 in his first congress, compared to the -.06 he has so far this congress, a -.14 swing in the liberal direction. It's probably not incidental that his vote share has also risen steadily over the years to 72% in 2008. While Colin Peterson is no liberal, he is liberal for his district and getting more liberal every year.

Minnesota’s Congressional Delegation

In an effort to get a better understanding of the voting tendencies of our congressional delegation I compiled the DW-Nominate scores for all of Minnesota's politicians from the 111^th congress. DW-Nominate is a scoring system for politicians, running from around -1 to 1, with -1 being very liberal and 1 being very conservative. There's a few ways to look at these numbers; first we'll just look at the raw DW-Nominate scores.

Representative	DW-N Score
ELLISON	-0.58
OBERSTAR	-0.54
MCCOLLUM	-0.44
Average Dem	-0.35
WALZ	-0.28
PETERSON	-0.18
PAULSEN	0.54
Average GOP	0.63
KLINE	0.69
BACHMANN	0.71

This is probably not too shocking of a chart, for the most part reflecting the conventional wisdom about the liberal/conservative spread of our state's delegation, except for maybe Jim Oberstar who ranks as more liberal then I would have suspected. Now let's adjust those scores to the party average, so for instance, the Democrats average DW-Nominate score was -.35, so Keith Ellison would then score a -.23 and Colin Peterson would score a .17, meaning Ellison is more liberal than the average Democrat and Peterson is more conservative.

Representative	DW vs average
ELLISON	-0.23
OBERSTAR	-0.19
MCCOLLUM	-0.09
WALZ	0.07
PETERSON	0.17
PAULSEN	-0.09
KLINE	0.05
BACHMANN	0.08

Again, nothing to ground breaking; Paulson is more liberal than the average GOPer, Walz and Peterson are more conservative than the average Democrat. The next thing I want to do is take a look at the PVI, partisan voting index, for the districts. PVI measures how Republican or Democratic a district is by averaging the districts results of the past two presidential elections and comparing them to the overall results. The difference between the two numbers is the districts PVI score, which for the purposes of this exercise we'll format the same way as the DW nominate scores, positive for GOP leaning districts, negative for Democratic leaning districts.

Representative	PVI	PVI vs Average
ELLISON	-23	-14
OBERSTAR	-3	6
MCCOLLUM	-13	-4
WALZ	1	10
PETERSON	5	14
Average Dem	-9
PAULSEN	0	-11
KLINE	4	-7
BACHMANN	7	-4
Average GOP	11

Tim Walz and Eric Paulson reside in the two swing districts in the state, according to PVI, with Oberstar's 8^th and Kline's 2^nd on the verge of being swingy. Obviously Colin Peterson's 7^th is in a bit of a special category, being solidly Republican yet sending Peterson back to congress year after year.

Now we can take these two measures and combine them into one number that will tell us how partisan a member is for their district on a rough -1 to 1 scale. We'll call this number the Selectively Integrated Legislator Variance Evaluation Resource, or SILVER for short.

Representative	SILVER
ELLISON	-0.03
OBERSTAR	-0.55
MCCOLLUM	-0.04
WALZ	-0.15
PETERSON	-0.06
PAULSEN	0.14
KLINE	0.31
BACHMANN	0.26

What stands out to me on this chart is when put into the context of their districts Oberstar is quite a bit more liberal than his colleagues; in fact he's 7^th among all Democrats in SILVER. My representative, Keith Ellison, whom the conventional wisdom has as an uber-liberal, is right around average. I also think this is vindication of a sort for Colin Peterson who has taken a lot of flak for some of his recent votes but is, by this measure, more liberal then Keith Ellison or Betty McCollum.