Monday, February 27, 2012

Not Almanac Episode 6: Redistricting!

Not Almanac logoIn this weeks episode we talk about redistricting... for the whole show.

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Tuesday, February 21, 2012

The Maps Have Landed

Obama/McCain %:

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Population distribution:

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Pretty much a text book example of "least change," which the some in the GOP were trying to say was just not possible.

Only Betty McCollum and John Kline retained less then 90% of their constituents, and both of their districts went in the other direction from a partisan perspective, although in Betty's case, it's hardly anything to worry about as she's still in a deeply Democratic district.

John Kline is a different story though. His district is now an Obama majority district, having cast 50.5% of their vote for the President. This doesn't mean that Kline is suddenly on the watch list, but if the GOP congress continues to be as unpopular as it is and quality candidate emerges, he could be in for a real fight.

While this isn't as good as the map the DFL submitted, it is probably the best we could have expected in a court map. This is a scenario that many saw as possible based on the redistricting principal of not splitting counties, and by keeping Dakota county whole, the court added a bunch of DFLers to Kline's district.

Here's the map, more info when I get it.

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And the cities close up.

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Quick thoughts, 2 got a lot bluer!

Monday, February 20, 2012

Not Almanac Episode 5: More GOP BS

Not Almanac logoThis week we talk about: more Republican bullshit, a legislative skills test, and we get into the weeds on some of the bills floating around the capitol.

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Monday, February 13, 2012

Not Almanac Episode 4: That ALEC guy

Not Almanac logoThis week we talk about: bullshit, Mark Dayton’s sharp elbows and of course that one guy, ALEC. Also in this edition we have an actual guest, Jesse Ross will talk with us about design in politics.

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Friday, February 10, 2012

A-Klo, Dayton and the terrible, rotten, no-good Legislature

Amy KlobucharThis is me, two weeks ago:

Posts about Amy Klobuchar polls are not really that fun to write. Every one is exactly the same, Amy is at around 55% and when you're at 55% it doesn't really matter what your challengers are doing.

And hey, look at that, this poll shows her at 55%. Against everyone. Again. For the third time. Call me shocked.

And ten weeks before that:

I might as well just write up a template for all these A-Klo poll posts, because they've all been the same so far. Amy Klobuchar is polling well over 50% against her announced opponents and is polling at 50% against the MN GOP's A-team, who can't even crack 40% against her.

And today:

SurveyUSA (2/3, 11/8 in parenthesis):
Amy Klobuchar (D-inc) 56 (55)
Dan Severson (R) 29 (23)
Undecided 15 (22)

Amy Klobuchar (D-inc) 59 (56)
Joe Arwood (R) 28 (22)
Undecided 14 (22)
(MoE: ±4.3%)

The real notable thing about this poll is that some of the undecideds have come off the fence and almost all of them went into the Republican candidates column, both Severson and Arwood are up 6 points since the last SUSA poll.

While that may seem like a bit of a worrying trend, it's not. It's was simply undecided Republicans, deciding to go with the Republican, which was going to happen anyway.

Thursday, February 9, 2012

Not Almanac, Episode 3: Photo ID for thee, but not me

Not Almanac logoIn this post-precinct-caucus edition we discuss such things as: Photo ID, the before mentioned and just concluded Minnesota precinct caucus and some intra party DFL nomination battles.

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Three Minnesota Constitutional Amendment Polls

Gay MarriageBack on February 3rd SurveyUSA, polling for KSTP, released a poll and I completely missed it for six days. So now, like a magazine that's been in the bathroom for a week, the corners bent and it's content exhausted, I'll finally bring it out for inspection.

The folks at SUSA asked about one constitutional amendment that's already on the ballot and two that seem like they're destined for that same fate.

SurveyUSA (2/3, 11/8 in parenthesis, 5/25 in brackets):
"An amendment to the Minnesota Constitution on the ballot defines marriage as between one man and one woman, will you vote..."

For 47 (46) [51]
Against 39 (40) [40]
Not vote 10 (10) [8]
Not sure 4 (4) [2]
(MoE: ±4.3%)

This issue has essentially stabilized over the last six months, with amendment supporters holding a small but consistent ~4 point advantage in the average of polls. SurveyUSA though is the only pollster who has given respondants the option of not voting for the amendment and they find 10% who utilize this option.

Those not votes, by people who cast a ballot, will count the same as no votes so it's tempting to simply lump them together and say that the amendment is actually losing slightly 49-47.