Thursday, November 10, 2011

Another poll shows the anti-family amendment winning

Gay MarriageOn Tuesday I posted about the Minnesota Poll and it's findings vis-a-vie the anti-family amendment, which were discouraging to say the least. Right on the heels of that comes a SurveyUSA poll showing basically the same result, Minnesota voters favoring the amendment by a handful of points.

SurveyUSA (11/8, 5/25 in parenthesis, 3/31 in brackets):
"If an amendment to the Minnesota Constitution were on the ballot, that defines marriage as between one man and one woman, would you vote..."

For 46 (51) [62]
Against 40 (40) [33]
Not vote 10 (8)
Not sure 4 (2) [5]
(MoE: ±4.3%)

This somewhat mirror's the Strib's 48-43 result in favor of the amendment. The big difference though is that SurveyUSA gave people the "not vote" option, of which 10% availed themselves.

If people actually voted this way next November the amendment would fail. This is because for an amendment to the Minnesota constitution to pass it needs to receive 50% + 1 of the entire electorate. Meaning not voting on the measure is as good as voting no.

The other thing you can see is that actual support for the amendment has eroded quite a bit since SurveyUSA's first poll of the issue at the end of March, going from 62% support, to 51% to 46% now. Opposition to the amendment hasn't risen at the same level as support has fallen, meaning that many people who at first supported the amendment have moved into the "Not vote" and "Not sure" categories.

Like in the Minnesota poll though, there are a substantial number of Democrats, 26% in this case, who are in favor of the amendment while only 58% are opposed. This will simply not do if we want to beat this thing.


Here's an updated table of all the polls conducted on the amendment (I've excluded the first Strib poll, as that one used more favorable question wording that doesn't reflect how the amendment will appear on the ballot):

MN Anti-Family Amendment Polling
Pollster median date "No" "Yes" NoVote Un margin
SurveyUSA 5/24/2011 40 51 10 -11
PPP 5/29/2011 47 46 7 1
PSRA 11/3/2011 43 48 8 -5
SurveyUSA 11/5/2011 40 46 10 4 -6
Ave 43 48 10 6 -4

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