Iowa's about to get frothy!

Rick Santorum will win the Iowa Caucuses on Tuesday.

But Tony, no poll has yet shown Santorum in the lead in Iowa and guru of election predictions Nate Silver, currently has him pegged at just a 21% chance to win, behind both Mitt Romney and Ron Paul, why would you be predicting a Santorum win?

Observe...

Momentum: Rick Santorum is the only candidate with any right now. The table below is the difference in support between the two most recent PPP polls of Iowa; the most recent being released yesterday and the previous one being released on the 27th of December, only five days earlier.

Santorum	8
Gingrich	1
Perry	0
Romney	-1
Bachmann	-3
Paul	-4

It's usually a mistake to read too much into momentum. Because Santorum is surging now, doesn't mean he will be surging on Tuesday. But there are solid fundamentals on which to rest this particular surge theory, the next bolded word for instance.