This Week in Redistricting 2/11

Another week, another trickle of redistricting news, as we wait for the Census Bureau to release the detailed Minnesota numbers. Looking at that map I'm astounded by the precision of their estimates for data release.

So until we can really give Dave's redistricting app a serious workout, onto the link round-up!

• The House Redistricting Committee is going on a road trip and may be stopping at a town near you!
  
  First stop is today at 1pm in Marshall.
  
  
• Tom Scheck talked to a number of Minnesota Congresspersons about their feelings regarding redistricting. Not surprisingly, Betty McCollum doesn't seem to hip to the idea of drawing Minneapolis and St. Paul as one district.
  
  
• MNCentral takes a look at participation rates in the different districts, and how redistricting might change that.
  
  

This Week in Redistricting 1/28

It's been over a month since the last time I put up a TWIR, partly because not a lot has been happening on the redistricting front, but mainly because I've found myself in a bit of a post-election listlessness.

My interest in blogging about politics is strongly related to the proximity of the next election and I'm now firmly in the lethargy stage of of the current cycle where I am finding other, non-political, topics to be more interesting timesinks.

So now that my preamble has gotten you super excited to read this post, on with it!

• The big news is that the lawsuits have begun. The first one was filed on the 12th of January with the plaintiffs all being Democrats. This was followed by a similar lawsuit filed by Republicans.
  
  None of this is surprising and in fact is expected. Since the requirement to redistrict every ten years is found nowhere in the Minnesota constitution and is the result of court precedent, the only way for the courts to have standing to draw a new map or force a new map to be drawn is if there is a corresponding lawsuit. Which, since the 60's, there has always been.
  
  And since everyone pretty much expects that the courts will draw the map this time around too, it's just the first step in what will likely be a year-long process.
  
  
• MPR talked with GOP State Sen. Geoff Michel about redistricting this week if you're interested in hearing what the head of redistricting for the Republican Senate has to say.
  
  In everything I've heard from the GOP so far, they are saying all the right things about working with the minority in the legislature and the Governor to produce a bipartisan map. As I've pointed out before, it wouldn't be completely crazy for the two parties to want to work something out, weather that will happen or not remains to be seen.
  
  
• rougemapper over at Swing State Project took to Dave's Redistricting app to try his hand at a Minnesota map. Check it out.
  
  

MNGOP decides they won't run against Amy

Seeing how well she polls Republicans have decided that they would rather run against Al Franken.



I guess we'll see how far they get with this strategy, but it's certainly a concession of the obvious, Amy Klobuchar is extremely popular and will be very difficult to beat. Given those conditions I can see why they'd rather not run against her.

And while they managed to get the wording updated on the front page to "destroying", they didn't actually get to the whole site yet.



If, like me, you were surprised to see that Amy voted for a bill that never actually got to the floor of the Senate it's because she didn't. This is what they are referring to:

The Environment and Public Works Committee voted 10-1 -- with seven Republican members skipping the vote -- to approve the climate change legislation drafted by Chairwoman Barbara Boxer, D-Calif., and Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass.

At least we know how they're planning to attack Amy, by attacking someone else.

Here's the address of the web site they put up, if you're curious: http://www.amyfacts.com

Redistricting: What makes a fair map

I've been meaning to write this post for awhile and finally got the imputes from a Twitter discussion with Harry Niska yesterday. This is how it started:



For those who don't know @amysd19 is Senate Majority Leader Amy Koch who was speaking at the Elephant Club luncheon. While Senator Koch is probably right, I took issue with her use of the word fair in regards to redistricting.

Whitewashing Twain

NPR:

An Alabama-based publishing company will replace the n-word in The Adventures Of Huckleberry Finn with the word "slave," and print Tom Sawyer without the term "Injun." Mark Twain scholar Alan Gribben says replacing the words will allow more students to experience the classic books.

I have to say that my immediate reaction to this story was the same as almost everyone else's, this is to say my reaction was along the lines of WTF? What's next, taking the F-word out of Glengarry Glen Ross?

I immediately thought of Stephen Spielberg's lame move to edit the guns out of the cops hands in E.T., replacing them with walkie talkies.

Redistricting: How we can expect the districts to change

Now that we know Minnesota will be keeping all eight of it's districts we can begin to look at what those districts might look like.

The Census Bureau has released population and apportionment information by state, Minnesota's population is 5,303,925, but have not released the more detailed data that will further brake down where those 5.3 million people are distributed in the state.

The ideal district size is achieved by dividing 5,303,925 by 8, which is 662,990.625. Since you can't have .625 of a person in one district the actual district sizes will end up being 662,990 and 662,991.

Although we don't have the official data from the Census Bureau yet, we do have good data from the Legislative Coordinating Commission's Geographic Information Services. Their 2009 Statewide Population Estimate came in at 5,300,942, which gives us ideal district sizes of 662,618.

These numbers are so close that I don't think it's necessary to try and extrapolate what the actual 2010 Census district sizes will be, I'm just going to use the LCC GIS's estimates, those are (difference from ideal size in brackets):

CD1: 635,429 [-27,189]
CD2: 737,324 [+74,706]
CD3: 664,528 [+1,537]
CD4: 623,879 [-38,739]
CD5: 618,292 [-44,326]
CD6: 755,489 [+92,871]
CD7: 615,742 [-46,876]
CD8: 649,438 [-13,180]

Minnesota will keep it's eight seats.

It's just been announced by the Census Bureau that Minnesota will keep all of it's congressional seats, with Missouri being the "bubble boy."

The politics of poverty

In Friday's "This Week in Redistricting" post I linked to the results of the American Community Survey (or ACS), which is where most of the demographic information that is used by the Census Bureau comes from.

They then took this information and put it into some maps.

One of the maps that I found particularly interesting is titled, percent of people below poverty level in the past 12 months. That map looks like this.

This Week in Redistricting 12/17

The big news is that the first batch of census data will be released on Monday Tuesday. This is the data that will let us know if we lose a congressional seat or not. While we wait for that, here is a nice juicy link to whet your appetite.

• The Census Bureau has released the 2010 Community Survey Estimates, which is what replaced the dreaded long form in this years census.
  
  

  The data released today are based on a rolling annual sample survey mailed to about 3 million addresses between Jan. 1, 2005, and Dec. 31, 2009. By pooling several years of survey responses, the ACS can generate detailed statistical portraits of smaller geographies. The Census Bureau will release a new set of 5-year estimates every year, giving these communities a powerful tool to track local trends over time.

  
  There are a lot of interesting maps to look at, if you're into that kind of thing.

Bachmann leads field of non-contenders

PPP polled Republican Primary voters about their preferences for who should run for the Senate against Amy Klobuchar, not surprisingly Michele Bachmann leads the field, a field with very few possible challengers.

Public Policy Polling (12/10 Republican Primary voters, no trend lines):

Michele Bachmann (R): 36
Tim Pawlenty: 20
Norm Coleman: 14
Chip Craavack: 7
Tom Emmer: 6
John Kline: 5
Laura Brod: 4
Eric Paulson: 2
Some else/not sure: 6
(MoE: ±5%)

This Week in Redistricting 12/10

• The leader of the GOP Senate caucus on redistricting will be Geoff Michel from SD41.
  
  
• State demographer Tom Gillaspy talked to Tom Scheck about weather Minnesota will lose a congressional seat or not.
  
  He confirmed what we already know:
  
  

  It's going to be very close. We're a cusp state.

  
  He said to expect the apportionment numbers before the beginning of the new year.
  
  
• A couple of things from the Census Bureau; first is a schedule for the release of different aspects of the Census data, the key one being the first one, the 2010 Census Redistricting Data, which is what is needed to actually start drawing lines on the map. Right now they have it drilled down to a very specific release date, sometime in February or March.
  
  Also from the Census bureau is a nifty video that explains how the apportionment process works.
  
  

First poll of 2012 Senate race; Nothing to see here

PPP polled the 2012 Minnesota Senate race and found Amy Klobuchar leading the five GOPers they tested her against and garnering over 50% of the vote against them all. Long story short, Amy Klobuchar will be very difficult to beat in 2012.

Here's the breakdown of the match-ups.

PPP (12/7, no trend lines):

Amy Klobuchar (D): 56
Michele Bachmann (R): 39
Undecided: 4

Amy Klobuchar (D): 54
Norm Coleman (R): 40
Undecided: 6

Amy Klobuchar (D): 56
Tom Emmer (R): 38
Undecided: 6

Amy Klobuchar (D): 53
Tim Pawlenty (R): 43
Undecided: 4

Amy Klobuchar (D): 52
Eric Paulson (R): 34
Undecided: 14
(MoE: ±3.2%)

Redistricting: A Minnesota History

For some context on the coming battle over redistricting, let's take a look at the checkered past of redistricting in Minnesota, a process that has a consistent history of dysfunction.

The information in this post is largely based on a presentation by Peter Wattson from the Minnesota Senate Council at the Minnesota Redistricting Forum. A copy of his presentation can be found here.

This Week in Redistricting 12/3

Things will probably be quiet in the world of redistricting until the initial census numbers start to come out in January. So these posts might be a little light till then.

• The chair of the committee on redistricting will be Sarah Anderson of 43A.
  
  
• The Rose Report has a state by state analysis of redistricting that's worth taking a look at.
  
  
• If you haven't yet, check out Dave's Redistricting App, which has now updated to version 2.0.
  
  
• Speaking of which, its_oshea provided the tools to remap Minnesota's Senate districts using Dave's Redistricting app, in his post a few weeks back.
  

A quick note and some eye candy

I won't be posting as much post-election as I did pre-election, but I hope to keep up something of a regular pace.

There are many things still to wrap up from the election, including;

• A Post-mortem
• Updated hPVIs

and because 2012 can't come too soon, I'll start the house and senate versions of the

• Most Vulnerable GOP Incumbents

Additionally I will continue to cover the redistricting process as it unfolds and provide background during the lead up.

If there are any suggestions for topics to cover, the comments of this thread would be the place for it.

In the meantime, here's a little something to consider, it's a chart of the partisan make-up of the Minnesota legislature, before and after the election.