Friday, June 18, 2010

New Gov Poll, Entenza on the move

SurveyUSA is out with a new poll on the Minnesota Governor's race today that should put to rest any doubts about Matt Entenza's viability in the DFL primary. Here's the breakdown:

That's some serious movement for Entenza, going from 6 and 10 points in the last two polls to 22 in this one. The toplines of this poll match up pretty well to the more than one month old MPR/Humphrey poll for both Mark Dayton and Margaret Anderson Kelliher, and if you add Entenza's topline to the undecided number in both polls the result is very similar, meaning it appears a lot of Entenza's movement is coming from undecideds. The problem now for both Entenza and Kelliher is that there are not enough undecided's left to put either of them on top of Dayton. What this means is you can expect the attack ads to start coming because the only way Entenza or Kelliher can win is to bring down Dayton's numbers.

Here's the updated G.P.I. for the DFL primary (I have reduced the Pollster weighting for the Mellman poll to 0 since it is an internal poll, the age weighting remains).

A few notes about the crosstabs, it appears as though Matt Entenza's selection of Robyn Robinson as his running mate has given him inroads into the African-American community as seen in the racial breakdown:

All of that support among the African-American community is only worth 1 topline point for both Kelliher and Entenza however.

Now take a look at the regional breakdown:

MAK is going to have a hard time winning the DFL primary if she can't win in the metro area as Dayton does really well in rural Minnesota.

They also polled the general election (previous results in parenthesis):

As you can see Tom Emmer is in big trouble come general election time, he lost ground to all of the DFL candidates and the IP candidate. His position will only become more precarious as voters learn more about him. Here's the updated GPI for the overall race:

I've zeroed out the weight for the first SurveyUSA poll because I only want to use the most recent poll from a particular pollster in the wAve. As you can see the weighted average method is not affected as much by a single poll (the decision resources poll in particular) as the L3 method, so it should be more robust as a forecasting tool.

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