Minnesota will keep it's eight seats.

It's just been announced by the Census Bureau that Minnesota will keep all of it's congressional seats, with Missouri being the "bubble boy."

The politics of poverty

In Friday's "This Week in Redistricting" post I linked to the results of the American Community Survey (or ACS), which is where most of the demographic information that is used by the Census Bureau comes from.

They then took this information and put it into some maps.

One of the maps that I found particularly interesting is titled, percent of people below poverty level in the past 12 months. That map looks like this.

This Week in Redistricting 12/17

The big news is that the first batch of census data will be released on Monday Tuesday. This is the data that will let us know if we lose a congressional seat or not. While we wait for that, here is a nice juicy link to whet your appetite.

• The Census Bureau has released the 2010 Community Survey Estimates, which is what replaced the dreaded long form in this years census.
  
  

  The data released today are based on a rolling annual sample survey mailed to about 3 million addresses between Jan. 1, 2005, and Dec. 31, 2009. By pooling several years of survey responses, the ACS can generate detailed statistical portraits of smaller geographies. The Census Bureau will release a new set of 5-year estimates every year, giving these communities a powerful tool to track local trends over time.

  
  There are a lot of interesting maps to look at, if you're into that kind of thing.

Bachmann leads field of non-contenders

PPP polled Republican Primary voters about their preferences for who should run for the Senate against Amy Klobuchar, not surprisingly Michele Bachmann leads the field, a field with very few possible challengers.

Public Policy Polling (12/10 Republican Primary voters, no trend lines):

Michele Bachmann (R): 36
Tim Pawlenty: 20
Norm Coleman: 14
Chip Craavack: 7
Tom Emmer: 6
John Kline: 5
Laura Brod: 4
Eric Paulson: 2
Some else/not sure: 6
(MoE: ±5%)

This Week in Redistricting 12/10

• The leader of the GOP Senate caucus on redistricting will be Geoff Michel from SD41.
  
  
• State demographer Tom Gillaspy talked to Tom Scheck about weather Minnesota will lose a congressional seat or not.
  
  He confirmed what we already know:
  
  

  It's going to be very close. We're a cusp state.

  
  He said to expect the apportionment numbers before the beginning of the new year.
  
  
• A couple of things from the Census Bureau; first is a schedule for the release of different aspects of the Census data, the key one being the first one, the 2010 Census Redistricting Data, which is what is needed to actually start drawing lines on the map. Right now they have it drilled down to a very specific release date, sometime in February or March.
  
  Also from the Census bureau is a nifty video that explains how the apportionment process works.
  
  

First poll of 2012 Senate race; Nothing to see here

PPP polled the 2012 Minnesota Senate race and found Amy Klobuchar leading the five GOPers they tested her against and garnering over 50% of the vote against them all. Long story short, Amy Klobuchar will be very difficult to beat in 2012.

Here's the breakdown of the match-ups.

PPP (12/7, no trend lines):

Amy Klobuchar (D): 56
Michele Bachmann (R): 39
Undecided: 4

Amy Klobuchar (D): 54
Norm Coleman (R): 40
Undecided: 6

Amy Klobuchar (D): 56
Tom Emmer (R): 38
Undecided: 6

Amy Klobuchar (D): 53
Tim Pawlenty (R): 43
Undecided: 4

Amy Klobuchar (D): 52
Eric Paulson (R): 34
Undecided: 14
(MoE: ±3.2%)

Redistricting: A Minnesota History

For some context on the coming battle over redistricting, let's take a look at the checkered past of redistricting in Minnesota, a process that has a consistent history of dysfunction.

The information in this post is largely based on a presentation by Peter Wattson from the Minnesota Senate Council at the Minnesota Redistricting Forum. A copy of his presentation can be found here.

This Week in Redistricting 12/3

Things will probably be quiet in the world of redistricting until the initial census numbers start to come out in January. So these posts might be a little light till then.

• The chair of the committee on redistricting will be Sarah Anderson of 43A.
  
  
• The Rose Report has a state by state analysis of redistricting that's worth taking a look at.
  
  
• If you haven't yet, check out Dave's Redistricting App, which has now updated to version 2.0.
  
  
• Speaking of which, its_oshea provided the tools to remap Minnesota's Senate districts using Dave's Redistricting app, in his post a few weeks back.
  

A quick note and some eye candy

I won't be posting as much post-election as I did pre-election, but I hope to keep up something of a regular pace.

There are many things still to wrap up from the election, including;

• A Post-mortem
• Updated hPVIs

and because 2012 can't come too soon, I'll start the house and senate versions of the

• Most Vulnerable GOP Incumbents

Additionally I will continue to cover the redistricting process as it unfolds and provide background during the lead up.

If there are any suggestions for topics to cover, the comments of this thread would be the place for it.

In the meantime, here's a little something to consider, it's a chart of the partisan make-up of the Minnesota legislature, before and after the election.