Tuesday, March 29, 2011

Updated hPVI by House district

Image Hosted by ImageShack.usI conclude the roll out of the 2011 hPVI's with the House edition. If you missed them or just want to go back and see them again, here are the county and Senate versions.

Some of this post may sound like a repeat of the Senate post from last week and that's because, as most of you know, House districts are nested within Senate districts, meaning any changes in the partisan makeup of the Senate districts has a direct effect on the makeup of the corresponding house districts.

This means that all of the same stuff applies that was discussed last week; the DFL leaning House districts are top heavy, and the GOP leaning districts are middle heavy. The DFL has almost thirty districts with a D+21 tilt or greater, while the GOP has only 20 such districts. The GOP, on the other hand, has 38 districts with leans between five and twenty while the DFL has only 15. For those of you not doing the math as we go; that's 58 R+5 and greater districts for the GOP, to only 44 D+5 and greater districts for the DFL.

Before we get too much further let's take a look at the seat graph:

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And for comparison's sake, the graph from the last iteration.

It's the same story as over in the Senate, the DFL was at an unsustainable high point, having controlled virtually all the DFL leaning districts and many of the GOP leaning ones. After November the DFL is holding onto much less GOP territory, while the GOP has made some inroads into DFL districts.

Here's the full list, sorted by hPVI with Democrats on the left and Republicans on the right. More commentary follows.

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As mentioned above, the picture in the house is much the same as it was in the Senate, the GOP, because of the partisan density of the Twin Cities and to a lesser degree Duluth, has an inherent advantage in that they have more favorable turf on which to run.

Don't fret just yet though, here's a look at the districts that changed the most:

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What you can see right off the bat is that many of the districts that have moved the most to the DFL are marginal districts, highlighted by Doug Wardlow's 38B and Morrie Lanning's 9A, which both experienced a big shift to the left.

They're not alone though, Andrea Kieffer's 56B and Par Mazorol's 41B also moved in the DFL's direction. Additionally, Kory Kath's 26A and Kim Norton's 29B have both become more hospitable to their DFL incumbents.

Meanwhile the districts that moved most in the GOP's direction are, with one exception, safe DFL or safe GOP districts already and so the shifts are not of much significance. David Hancock's newly won 2B, is the one exception, his marginal district got more friendly to him, but otherwise this list resembles the one on the Senate side.

Redistricting will have some effect on these districts no doubt, but the suburbs don't have to be the disaster for the DFL they were in 2010. Until the new lines are drawn though, it's anyone's guess where the weak spots will be.


Here's a pretty (as pretty as something made in excel can get), color-coded version of the House hPVI's.

The left most column is the House district label, a blue shading means the seat is controlled by the DFL, red GOP. The next column is the Representative's name, the next is the current hPVI and the next is the old hPVI. The shading for these two columns is based on the hPVI value, so the more blue a cell is the more strongly it leans DFL compared to other districts. The last column is the amount of change since the last iteration.

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