Thursday, June 2, 2011

Unpacking the rest of the PPP poll

Image Hosted by ImageShack.usYesterday I went over the questions in the recent PPP poll concerning the Marriage Discrimination Amendment, today I'm going to look at the numbers on Governor Dayton and the Legislature.

PPP (6/1, no trendlines):
"Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Mark Dayton’s job performance?"

Approve 51
Disapprove 38
Not sure 10
(MoE: ±2.9%)

As Tom Jensen points out in his analysis of the polling info:

The buyer's remorse about the results of last year's Gubernatorial elections that we've found in midwestern states like Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania appears to be a Republican only phenomenon. Mark Dayton has a very solid 51/38 approval rating with more GOP voters (12%) happy with the job he's doing than Democrats (6%) who are unhappy. Independents think he's doing a good job by a 48/39 spread as well.

John Kasich in Ohio (33/56), Rick Snyder in Michigan (33/50), Terry Branstad in Iowa (41/45) and Scott Walker in Wisconsin (43/54) all have underwater approval spreads according to PPP's results. Yet Mark Dayton, dealing with a larger budget deficit issue than any of the aforementioned Governor's is comfortably in positive territory.

Additionally, while voters are not thrilled with DFL legislators, they are decidedly nonplussed by the GOP majorities.

PPP (6/1, no trendlines):
"Do you approve or disapprove of the job the DFL members of the legislature are doing?"

Approve 39
Disapprove 45
Not sure 16

"Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Republican members of the legislature are doing?"

Approve 29
Disapprove 58
Not sure 13
(MoE: ±2.9%)

These are terrible numbers for the GOP, their approval is running a full 23 points worse then the DFL. Only 29% of voters approve of the GOP legislature.

Diving into the crosstabs on this one we find that 12% of voters who pulled the lever for Barack Obama disapprove of the job the DFLers in the legislature have done so far. On the other hand, 25% of John McCain voters disapprove of the job the GOP legislature has done.

Even more damning; while 31% of self described moderates disapprove of the DFL legislators, an incredible 71% disapprove of the GOP.

And it's not just moderates who don't like the GOP legislature, it's GOPers too. While 8% of DFLers disapprove of DFL legislators, 19% of Republicans disapprove of the GOPers.

And this all shows in the generic ballot test:

PPP (6/1, no trendlines):
"If there was an election for the legislature today do you think you would vote for the DFL or Republican candidate from your district?"

DFL candidate 49
Republican candidate 40
Not sure 11
(MoE: ±2.9%)

The crosstabs are even worse for the GOP as the DFL leads them among self described moderates 60/17, a 43 point advantage. If these numbers hold up the DFL should have no trouble getting their majorities back in both the house and senate in November 2012.

And for that we owe the MNGOP a big thank you.

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