Thursday, July 28, 2011

MinnPost gets into the polling game

MinnPost PollCiting a lack of other news organizations polling about the state of opinion in Minnesota in the post-shutdown environment MinnPost decided to run with that ball and commissioned themselves a poll.

MinnPost (7/28, all Minnesotans):
Who do you think is most responsible for the budget crisis and shutdown?

Governor Dayton: 21
Republicans in the Legislature: 42
Both (volunteered): 22
No opinion: 15
(MoE: ±4.8%)

There's not really much to parse in these results, 64% of respondents blame the GOP while 43% blame Governor Dayton, supporting the impression I had that the public was siding with Dayton.

Which approach would you rather see used to balance the state budget: Use spending cuts only, or use a combination of spending cuts and tax increases?

Spending cuts only: 23
Tax increases only: 5
A combination of spending cuts and tax increases: 66
No opinion: 6
(MoE: ±4.8%)

This is exactly the question that KSTP/SurveyUSA should have asked back in their silly June poll, and hey look at the results, 71% of Minnesotans support a solution that includes tax increases. Those are voter ID numbers!

Will the state budget situation and shutdown make you more likely to vote for Republicans in the 2012 election for state legislature, more likely to vote for Democrats, or will not effect your vote at all?

More likely to vote GOP: 17
More likely to vote DFL: 30
Not effect my vote: 42
No opinion: 11
(MoE: ±4.8%)

The way this breaks down in the cross-tabs is that independents mimic the top line numbers rather closely, with 29% of them saying they are more likely to vote for DFLers and 13% saying they are more likely to vote GOP.

Considering the razor thin margins that many GOPers won by in 2012, these can not be comforting numbers for them.

The big caveat of this poll is the total lack of any screening whatsoever, it's sample frame is the entire population of the state. I have no issues with a poll of registered voters (as opposed to likely voters) this far from an election, but to apply no screen whatsoever, means that this polls utility in making political predictions is somewhat limited.

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