Wednesday, September 29, 2010

GPI update; what happened to a tight race?

MPR/Humphrey released a new poll of the governor's race today and it's good news for the blue team. Not only do they show Mark Dayton with an 11 point edge, 38-27, the internals paint an even better picture.

• Minnesota voters have awoken from their summer slumber. More than 8 out of 10 Minnesotans are interested in the November elections, a substantial increase that is being propelled by the energizing of formerly turned-off Democrats.

•Horner is crippling Emmer's campaign, soaking up one-fifth of Republican voters while taking only half as much from Dayton.

• Dayton is tapping voter frustration and appears better positioned among voters who have not yet declared their support for a candidate.

Last week, with the release of the Rasmussen poll, which was the third poll in a row showing a tied race, I wrote this:

That's three polls in a row showing essentially a tied race, regardless of whatever issues some of us may have with some of these polls, an evenly split electorate seems to be the new normal of the Minnesota Governors race.

Now, not even a week later we have two polls in a row showing Dayton back out to a ten point lead. What this new MPR poll does though is provide further evidence that the Rasmussen poll was likely an outlier.

Again, Mark Dayton has been polling within a rather defined range at just below 40%. All of the ranges of Mark Dayton numbers share some data points, for Tom Emmer however the Rasmussen poll and the StarTribune poll don't share any data points. One of them is an outlier and considering where the other polling has put Tom Emmer's numbers I would guess it's the Rasmussen poll, no surprise.

This MPR poll has a margin spread (top line +/- moe) that shares data points with the StarTribune poll but not the Rasmussen poll, so again which one is the outlier?

Here's the GPI update:

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