Monday, October 25, 2010

GPI update; another day, another poll

St. Cloud St. U (10/25, likely voters, no trend lines):
Mark Dayton (D): 40
Tom Emmer (R): 30
Tom Horner (I): 19
Undecided: 5
(MoE: ±5%)

While the initial reaction to this poll might be to think that Tom Horner is back in the thick of it, there are reasons to be skeptical.

One reason for skepticism is the fact that the poll was in the field for 12 days, from October 10th to October 21st. They went into the field a day before the last SuveryUSA poll did, and concluded interviews on the same day as the just released StarTribune poll.

In the time from when they started polling till when they were done three other polls were conducted and released. While this kind of practice is not unheard of, it is certainly not normal.

Another, and perhaps larger, reason for suspicion is the partisan id of the sample, which comes in at 29D/22R/39I. In the past I have raised questions about MPR/Humphrey polls having too few independents in their sample, this poll looks to have too many.

Be that as it may, we'll throw this poll into the GPI mix with the rest of them and what comes out is Mark Dayton's largest advantage in the GPI since August, 6 points.

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(To clarify, the "age" of the poll is how long it's been since the median date the poll was in the field)

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