Monday, October 25, 2010

GPI update; the Horner slide confirmed

StarTribune (PSRI) (10/24, likely voters, 9/26 in parentheses):
Mark Dayton (D): 41 (39)
Tom Emmer (R): 34 (30)
Tom Horner (I): 13 (18)
Undecided: 12 (12)
(MoE: ±3.9%)

This is now the third pollster to show Tom Horner sliding from his high-water mark of 18% down into the low teens, so it's clear that he has lost support, the question now becomes weather he can hold onto what he's got left or if the slide continues.

Tom Horner's decline is occurring across the board according to PSRI, he went from getting 11% of GOPers, 9% of DFLers and 38% of indy's in the last poll to getting 7%, 6% and 30% in this one. At this point the possibility of a Tom Horner win is nothing more than a distant memory, and the election will come down to weather or not DFLers turn out.

I say that because Tom Emmer's path to victory seems to narrow with every new poll that is released. The only pollster to show him above 40% recently has been Rasmussen, who has had quite a perceptible Republican tilt this year, even by Rasmussen standards.

In contrast, SurveyUSA, who has also been producing a lot of favorable GOP polls this year, has consistently shown him in the 35-37% range, right about where this poll puts him. Meanwhile, Mark Dayton has been at 40% or greater in the last four polls released, two of those being from Rasmussen.

A few points about the GPI, for the weighted average I'm dropping polls after thirty days now that we are nearing the election, so in this edition three polls have been dropped since the last one, but I expect at least two more polls to come out before election day. Additionally all the polls that are currently in the GPI will be part of the final GPI.

One more note; the standard polling average, Ave, is an average of all the polls conducted since the primary.

Here then is the updated GPI, with Mark Dayton posting his highest number since right after the primary.

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And here is the updated GPI graph:

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