Friday, October 15, 2010

GPI update; SurveyUSA is back in the field

SurveyUSA (10/14, likely voters, 9/15 in parentheses):
Mark Dayton (D): 42 (38)
Tom Emmer (R): 37 (36)
Tom Horner (I): 14 (18)
Undecided: 4 (4)
(MoE: ±3.7%)

This is confirmation of where the current average has the race, although there are a few things about the poll itself worth pointing out.

  • There was some erosion in Tom Horner's numbers since the last SUSA poll and it looks like that may be some Democrats coming home, but as is typical with SurveyUSA polls, they don't yet have the info on their website and KSTP only releases the top lines so it's hard to say for sure.

    This is the first time that a pollster has shown a Horner decline since their last poll, so it could either be the beginning of the end for Tom Horner, or a statistical blip. Regardless, Tom Horner lost 4 points, Emmer gained 1 and Dayton gained 4. This is not good news for Tom Emmer, but I don't want to get too far into an analysis at this point as that will be the main topic of part three of The Horner Effect.

    How's that for self promotion!

  • [UPDATED] KSTP didn't bother to break out undecideds from "other candidates." This is what it says in their article about the poll.

    Seven percent of respondents said they either support someone else or are undecided.

    I'm not sure if KSTP is aware of this, but undecided and "support someone else" are completely different categories of response and knowing what the undecided number is, all by its lonesome, is helpful. As soon as SUSA puts the poll on their website I'll update the GPI with the actual undecided number.

Here then is the current GPI, with Mark Dayton continuing to have a small but significant 4 point lead.

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Enjoy the weekend and GOTV!


  1. Clearly good news for Emmer, Theres 14% of Horner voters to come home now, no matter how that splits Emmer is back in play a poll showing Horner at 19 or 20 would have been the end of Emmer's chances

  2. I'm not sure I agree, but I will be discussing this topic in much greater detail in the near future.