Friday, October 22, 2010

GPI update; Horner's slide continues

Rasmussen (10/22, likely voters, 10/6 in parentheses):
Mark Dayton (D): 44 (40)
Tom Emmer (R): 41 (38)
Tom Horner (I): 10 (15)
Undecided: 4 (5)
(MoE: ±4%)

This is the third poll in a row to show Mark Dayton with a 2-4 point lead over Tom Emmer and Tom Horner losing support since the last poll by the same pollster, although by a much more significant margin than we've previously seen. Despite what I wrote yesterday, there is now reason to believe that Tom Horner's support is in fact eroding, similar to what happened to Tim Penny in 2002, although I would certainly like to see another poll showing him this low before jumping to any conclusions.

Here is the updated GPI, with Mark Dayton continuing to maintain a four point lead:

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Below is a graph of the GPI over time and you can clearly see that since the beginning of October Mark Dayton has held a consistent four point lead and you can also see the beginnings of a Tom Horner slide.

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I would guess that the four polling companies who have been in the field so far will each drop another poll before election day, so we should have a pretty good idea of where things are at by than. In the meantime, GOTV!

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