Thursday, October 28, 2010

GPI update; Emmer below 30 again

MPR/Humphrey (10/28, likely voters, 9/29 in parentheses):
Mark Dayton (D): 41 (38)
Tom Emmer (R): 29 (27)
Tom Horner (I): 13 (16)
Undecided: 20 (20)
(MoE: ±5.5%)

MPR released it's last poll of the Governor's race this morning and they don't find a whole lot has changed since last time, other than Horner losing a few points to the other two candidates, which other polls had already shown.

If the undecided number seems high, it is, but The Humphrey Institute lumps undecided into the same category as "don't know," "refused," and "voting for someone else." It would be nice to see what the undecided number is all on it's lonesome.

There is an interesting split developing between the national automated pollsters and the more locally based live interviewer polls in how much support they see Tom Emmer getting, take a look.

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Nationally, the polls released by both Rasmussen and SurveyUSA have tended to tilt more Republican than other pollsters this year and it looks like that is also happening in the Minnesota Governor's race. Given that, it looks like the high 30s might be Tom Emmers ceiling, as opposed to his current standing.

The flip side of this is that SurveyUSA has one of the best pollster ratings of any pollster in Nate's database and Rasmussen is well above average. On the other had Humphrey has one of the worst scores and St. Cloud St. U is well below average, so this could also be a case of the better pollsters getting different results than the more inferior pollsters.

We'll find out shortly.

Here is the updated GPI:

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And the updated GPI graph:

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"Rating" is from Nate Silver's pollster ratings. "Age" is the number of days since the median date that the poll was in the field. "Weight" is a combination of pollster rating and age of the poll, with age being the dominate factor.

"Ave" is an average of all polls conducted since the primary. "L3Ave" is an average of the last three polls. "wAve" is a weighted average using the "weight" variable.

The graph is of the wAve in the GPI, not specific polls. The dates used for data points are the date the GPI was published.

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