Wednesday, October 27, 2010

New CD1 poll; Tim Walz at 50%

SurveyUSA (10/27, likely voters, 10/15 in parentheses):
Rep. Tim Walz (D): 50 (47)
Randy Demmer (R): 41 (42)
Steven Wilson (I): 4 (4)
Undecided: 4 (5)
(MoE: ±4.1%)

This could just be float within the margin of error, rather than a Tim Walz surge, but either way there just aren't enough undecided voters left for Randy Demmer to pull off the upset. These are exactly the kinds of seats that Democrats need to win if they want to hang onto control of the house, but the rest of the Midwest might not be so friendly.

According to Nate Silver's house forecasting model 7 of the 30 most likely seats to change parties are from Midwestern states; Illinois, Michigan, Ohio (2), Indiana, Wisconsin, North Dakota.

This image from Nate's site illustrates rather well how much of a blue enclave Minnesota has become in comparison to the rest of the Midwest.

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Some of these states also have races for higher office, Governor and Senator, that are likely to flip to the GOP; Illinois, Michigan ,Ohio (2), Indiana, Wisconsin (2), North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa.

So even if though Michele Bachmann and Eric Paulson and John Kline will likely win, we get to send people like Tim Walz and Keith Ellison and Jim Oberstar and Al Franken to congress. And if we all do our jobs and turn out the DFL vote, we'll have a Democratic Governor and a Democratic legislature for the first time in too long.



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